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Storms Goretti and Nils
Status: Closed
| Type of posting | Posting date(EST): | Summary | Downloads |
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| Similar Stochastic Events | 4/28/2026 11:00:00 AM |
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Similar Stochastic Events | Summary
Posting Date: April 28, 2026, 11:00:00 AM
The Verisk team has revisited recent European storms Goretti and Nils in an effort to produce similar stochastic events. Event IDs and summaries of the process undertaken to select these events are available for download in the downloads tab of this posting on the ALERT website. The event IDs selected should only be used with exposures in France and are only valid for the wind peril.
Storm Goretti
Extratropical Cyclone Goretti affected much of western and northern France between 8 and 9 January 2026. Coastal regions in the north recorded the highest wind gusts, with the Manche region experiencing a 213 km/h (132 mph) gust, near record-breaking, and likely associated with a sting jet. The storm, named Goretti by Météo‑France (and Elli by the Free University of Berlin), also brought a noticeable impact to parts of southern England, especially exposed parts of the south-west and the Channel Islands.
At the height of the event, approximately 450,000 customers lost electrical power, especially in Normandy. Preliminary loss estimates indicate that Storm Goretti generated insured losses for France above 300 million EUR, but not reaching the levels of losses seen by Storm Nils later in the season.
Satellite Image of Storm Goretti (U.K. Met Office)
To create these similar stochastic events in the immediate aftermath of the event, Verisk leveraged MeteoFrance station observation wind gust data for Storm Goretti in France. Due to their high contribution to the total loss, particular focus was placed on CRESTAs FRA_29 and FRA_50, with the requirement that wind gusts for these CRESTAs were similar to averaged MeteoFrance observations. Qualifying stochastic storms were scored based on their overall distribution of wind gusts, number of affected CRESTAs, and wind gust differences for every CRESTA. Finally, the two SSEs were selected using a combination of this scoring and expert judgment and were further validated using weather station observations. More details can be found in the downloadable pdf.
Storm Nils
Extratropical Cyclone Nils affected large parts of southern and southwestern France between 11 and 13 February 2026, bringing a combination of damaging winds, prolonged heavy rainfall, and significant flooding. The storm, named Nils by Météo‑France (and Ulrike by the Free University of Berlin), was the most severe in a sequence of storms impacting France during late January and February 2026.
The strongest impacts were observed across Nouvelle‑Aquitaine and Occitanie, where peak wind gusts exceeded 150 km/h along exposed Atlantic coastal areas, with gusts above 130 km/h inland, including near Toulouse.
At the height of the event, approximately 900,000 customers lost electrical power, and transport networks experienced severe disruption due to fallen trees, flooding, and debris. Wind damage to roofs and light‑weight structures represented the primary driver of physical damage, particularly in rural and suburban areas of southwest France.
Preliminary loss estimates indicate that Storm Nils generated substantial insured losses. PERILS issued an initial industry loss estimate of EUR 586 million for France, covering property and motor lines of business, with the majority caused by high winds.
A car is destroyed after a tree fell on it during Storm Nils in France (rte.ie)
To create these similar stochastic events, Verisk leveraged CRESTA-level wind gust data for Storm Nils in France, whilst filtering only for storms in the vicinity of the overall France industry loss. Due to their high contribution to the total loss, particular focus was placed on CRESTAs FRA_33, FRA_40, FRA_32, FRA_31, FRA_09, FRA_66, and FRA_11, with the requirement that wind gusts for these CRESTAs were similar to those from ICON-EU. Qualifying stochastic storms were scored based on their overall distribution of wind gusts, number of affected CRESTAs, and wind gust differences for every CRESTA. Finally, the two SSEs were selected using a combination of this scoring and expert judgment and were further validated using weather station observations.
Please contact your Verisk representative with any questions regarding these storms.
Similar Stochastic Events | Downloads
Posting Date: April 28, 2026, 11:00:00 AM
The information provided herein is strictly confidential and is solely for the use of Verisk clients; disclosure to others is prohibited.
Similar Stochastic Event IDs
Note: These lists give event IDs taken from our stochastic catalog that have similar characteristics as the current event.
| Product | File Type | Description | Download |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOUCHSTONE / Re | Excel (xls) | Selected set of stochastic events for Storm Goretti |  |
| TOUCHSTONE / Re | Excel (xls) | Selected set of stochastic events for Storm Nils | |
Additional Downloads
Note: Additional downloads related to the posting are listed below. Please use the appropriate application to view these files.
| Title | File Type | Description | Download |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goretti Summary | Summary of process to select Goretti similar events | |
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| Nils Summary | Summary of process to select Nils similar events | |
