M7.1 Japan

Similar Stochastic Events | Summary
Posting Date: July 29, 2026, 8:00:00 AM

On July 28, 2026, at 4:27 p.m. local time, a significant earthquake struck Kumamoto Prefecture on Japan’s southern island of Kyushu. The Japan Meteorological Agency reported a preliminary magnitude of 7.1, with the epicenter in the Kumamoto region and a revised focal depth of 16 km. The earthquake produced maximum JMA seismic intensity 7 in Uki City and Hikawa Town, with strong shaking felt across a broad area of Kyushu and western Japan.

A tsunami advisory was issued for the Ariake and Yatsushiro Sea coastal areas shortly after the earthquake and was later lifted. Authorities advised residents in strongly shaken areas to avoid damaged buildings, unstable slopes, and coastal areas where official advisories remain in effect. The JMA also cautioned that, given the region’s seismic history, earthquakes with shaking as strong as intensity 7 remain possible during the week following the main shock, with the highest aftershock risk typically concentrated in the first two to three days.

Early impact reports indicate severe localized damage in Kumamoto Prefecture. Building collapses, fires, road damage, bridge damage, and power outages were reported across the affected area. The most serious reported incidents include a partial collapse and explosion at Aeon Mall Kumamoto in Kashima Town and damage at the Nippon Paper Industries facility in Yatsushiro, where rescue operations continued for people believed to be trapped or missing. Casualty figures remain subject to revision as search-and-rescue operations and damage assessments continue.

Transportation and utility networks across Kyushu were disrupted. Kyushu Shinkansen and local rail services were suspended for safety inspections, with some segments remaining closed while operators assessed track and infrastructure damage. Kumamoto Airport also experienced flight disruptions, although some operations were reported to be continuing. Road closures and debris complicated access in damaged areas, while utility providers worked to restore electricity, gas, water, and communications services.

The heaviest shaking and most severe impacts were concentrated in and around Kumamoto Prefecture, including Uki, Hikawa, Uto, Yatsushiro, Kashima, Mashiki, and Kumamoto City. Historic sites, including Kumamoto Castle, were also reported to have sustained additional damage. Hospitals and emergency responders treated numerous injured residents while national and local authorities deployed rescue teams and Self-Defense Force personnel to support search, rescue, evacuation, and recovery operations.

Aftershocks have continued since the main event. As of the evening of July 28, the JMA had recorded dozens of earthquakes with observed seismic intensity of 1 or higher, including several strong aftershocks. The agency noted elevated risks of additional building collapse, landslides, and secondary impacts in areas that experienced intense shaking, particularly where structures or slopes were already weakened.

Authorities continue to emphasize caution while response and recovery efforts remain active. Residents are being urged to follow official guidance, avoid unsafe structures and slopes, prepare for further strong shaking, and use designated shelters where necessary. Given the developing nature of the event, impact estimates should be treated as preliminary and updated as official assessments become available.

ALERT™ subscribers can download stochastic event (SSE) IDs for this earthquake’s impacts in Japan from the Downloads tab of this posting on the ALERT website. Compatible with Touchstone® and Touchstone Re™, the SSEs were selected based on the event’s magnitude, depth, epicenter location, faulting characteristics, observed shaking distribution, and aftershock activity. They should only be used with exposures in Japan.

The Verisk ALERT team is continuing to monitor the aftermath of this event and will provide an update on any additional related activities before the end of this week.

Similar Stochastic Events | Downloads
Posting Date: July 29, 2026, 8:00:00 AM

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Similar Stochastic Event IDs

Note: These lists give event IDs taken from our stochastic catalog that have similar characteristics as the current event.

Product	File Type	Description	Download
TOUCHSTONE / Re	Excel (xls)	Selected set of stochastic events, with Readme in Excel format
TOUCHSTONE / Re	CSV (csv)	Selected set of stochastic events, formatted for import into Touchstone/Re