29 October 2000 Storm

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Posting Date: October 29, 2000, 11:00:00 AM

A severe windstorm, as yet unnamed, is predicted to strike Europe early on Monday morning, October 30, 2000. This is the first severe storm of the 2000-2001 season. The UK Meteorological office has warned residents in southern England to expect wind gusts of up to 110 to 145 kph (30 - 40 m/s) in exposed areas. Metéo France has predicted wind speeds to reach 140 kph (about 39 m/s) in some regions of northern France, gusts of 100 - 120 kph (about 28 - 33 m/s) for the Paris area, and forecast waves of about 20 feet for the Grionde estuary. AIR meteorologists have forecast the evolution of this storm using AIR's in-house NWP modeling capabilities. AIR models project winds reaching 120-150 kph (33 to 42 m/s) in the southwestern UK including Wales and Cornwall, Brittany and Normandy in France, and along the coasts of Belgium and the Netherlands. The storm is forecast to be at its peak in the UK from midnight to 6 a.m. local time on Monday, and from 3 a.m. until noon local time in France, and from 6 a.m. to around 3 p.m. local time in the Netherlands. The animation below, generated using AIR's NWP model, shows the evolution of this system from noon on Saturday, October 28, to noon on Tuesday, October 31. It also shows the precursor storm that affected the U.K. on Saturday, October 28th, with wind speeds up to an estimated 100-120 kph (28 - 33 m/s). Although Saturday's storm was much less intense, it did spawn at least one tornado that affected West Sussex. Both storms are part of a complex system covering a large area of the north Atlantic that is spawning a number of lesser storms. AIR has provided forecast scenarios and event sets for this storm using the European windstorm model. The forecast scenarios show maximum wind speed footprints and loss estimates for the affected area. The forecast scenarios are similar indicating that there is less meteorological uncertainty with this event than with the major events of 1999. Note that these loss estimates have been generated before the storm occurrence using no observed wind speed data or observations of actual damage. The loss estimates are based purely on AIR's proprietary European windstorm model. Therefore, the loss estimates will be updated when actual observed wind speed data is available as the storm actually occurs on Monday.

First Posting | Downloads
Posting Date: October 29, 2000, 11:00:00 AM