Hurricane Jova

Pre-Landfall 1 | Summary
Posting Date: October 10, 2011, 10:30:00 AM

Current Conditions Jova, the ninth hurricane of the eastern Pacific season and the tenth named storm, is 250 miles southwest of the port city of Manzanillo (population 100,000) in the state of Colima, Mexico. As of the National Hurricane Center’s 8:00 a.m. PDT advisory today, the storm is tracking east at 5 mph. Having undergone significant intensification overnight, maximum sustained winds are now 125 mph with higher gusts. Presently, a hurricane watch is in effect from Punta San Telmo north to Cabo Corrientes, near Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Lazaro Cardenas north to Punta San Telmo. Heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides could begin impacting the hurricane warning area as early as today. The storm is a significant threat because it is slow-moving, and the potential exists for major flooding in Manzanillo and other locations along the coast. The storm could bring 5 to 10 inches of rain over the states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco with up to 15 inches possible in some locations in mountainous terrain. In addition, a slow-moving storm will also exacerbate wind damage as structures are exposed to battering winds over a prolonged period. In anticipation of the storm’s arrival, at least 100 shelters were open Sunday for people who may be affected by the storm. The Mexican government has deployed 300 soldiers and members of the Mexican Navy have been placed on alert in Puerto Vallarta. Expected Damage At Category 3 wind speeds, damage is expected to be significant. Structural damage to houses and buildings may occur, particularly to rooftops, while windows and cladding on engineered structures could be damaged by impact from debris. Many trees will likely be uprooted and snapped, blocking roadways or damaging homes and automobiles. Most insured residential structures on Mexico's west coast are made of confined masonry, which performs better than plain masonry under lateral wind loads because of its use of bond beams and columns. However, a large percentage of houses built every year in Mexico are constructed without a building permit, perhaps as high as 50%. Commercial properties tend to be constructed of confined masonry or reinforced concrete. Currently, a single national building code for structural design does not exist in Mexico. The enactment and adoption of building codes are subjected to the government department in each of the more than 2,400 municipalities. Forecast and Intensity Most of the forecast models have Jova taking a turn towards the north-northeast east on Tuesday, eventually turning northward after interacting with two upper level disturbances. Presently, Jova—a small storm, with hurricane-force winds extending outward just 15 miles— is experiencing low-to-moderate wind shear conditions. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for further rapid intensification. While in this favorable environment, the storm should continue to slowly strengthen, possibly nearing Category 4 strength by tomorrow. As the storm approaches landfall, the forward speed should increase slightly. The current forecast has the storm weakening slightly just before landfall and coming ashore as a strong Category 3 storm, with maximum winds of 125 mph. AIR's tropical cyclone team is continuing to monitor Jova and will provide additional information as events warrant.

Pre-Landfall 1 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 10, 2011, 10:30:00 AM