Tropical Storm Rina

Pre-Landfall 2 | Summary
Posting Date: October 26, 2011, 1:45:00 PM

Current Conditions As of the National Hurricane Center’s 12:30 PM CDT advisory today, Hurricane Rina has weakened more quickly than had been anticipated on its path toward Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. Rina is now a Category 1 hurricane. The storm is currently 180 miles south-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico and 190 miles east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are 85 mph, down from 105 mph last night. Rina’s hurricane-force winds extend outward 25 miles from the center; tropical storm-force winds extend outward 115 miles. The storm is churning very slowly west-northwest at 6 mph. Hurricane warnings have been issued for the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from the north of Punta Gruesa to San Felipe. By late afternoon or evening today, the locations in this warning cone could begin to experience tropical storm conditions. The primary threat from Rina is rainfall, which will be exacerbated by the slow forward speed of the storm. The storm could deliver up to 16 inches of rain in the Yucatan by Thursday, and the potential exists for flooding in locations along the coast. Wind damage; however; is expected to be minimal. Forecast Track and Intensity Rina continues to struggle with dry air associated with an upper level trough and increased wind shear. According to the latest satellite imagery, Rina appears very disorganized and as the storm continues to move over cooler waters, re-intensification does not appear likely. Hurricane Rina is forecast to be on a track that will take it toward the northwest and then the north before making landfall over the northeast coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday at hurricane strength. After that, it is expected to pass near Cuba before weakening quickly, ultimately dissipating within 24 hours. It should be noted, however, that considerable uncertainty exists with respect to Rina’s forecast track after its encounter with Mexico. The AIR tropical cyclone team continues to monitor Hurricane Rina closely and will provide additional information as warranted by events.

Pre-Landfall 2 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 26, 2011, 1:45:00 PM