Tropical Storm Rina

Pre-Landfall 3 | Summary
Posting Date: October 27, 2011, 8:15:00 AM

Current Conditions As of the National Hurricane Center’s 10:00 AM CDT advisory today, Rina has weakened further still after undergoing significant degradation yesterday. Rina is now a tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, down from 85 mph yesterday. The storm is currently 90 miles south of Cozumel, Mexico, and 100miles east-northeast of Chetumal. Rina is a relatively small system; its tropical storm-force winds extend outward 85 miles. The storm is moving slowly northwest, at 6 mph. The hurricane warning previously in place for the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula has been downgraded to a tropical storm warning and is in effect on the east and north coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Progreso. Areas within the warning area are already experiencing tropical storm conditions and these conditions will spread northward along the coast later today and night. An automated wind recording station at Banco Chinchorro, east of Chetumal, has already reported a sustained wind speed of 43 mph. Rina’s primary threat is rainfall, which will be exacerbated by the storm’s slow forward speed, though the rainfall expected is not as widespread or as intense as had previously been forecast. Today and tomorrow, Rina is expected to produce three to six inches of rain over the eastern Yucatan, with isolated areas receiving up to ten inches. Inland along the track, rainfall is expected to persist. Coastal locations could experience damaging flooding, and storm surge could raise water levels along the coast one to three feet above normal tide levels. Wind damage, meanwhile, is expected to be minimal. In advance of the storm, approximately 50,000 people have been evacuated from coastal locations likely to be impacted by destructive waves. The beach resorts, including Cancun, have been taking preparations as well—boarding up homes and businesses and opening shelters. As of yesterday (Wednesday, October 26), 10,000 tourists had left the popular string of beach resorts in the region. Authorities warned people in the area to consider making flight plans before airport travel is disrupted. Though the airport in Cancun is still open, nearly 100 flights in and out have been cancelled. Forecast Track and Intensity While Rina exhibited a well-formed eye yesterday, its structure has steadily become more disorganized since midnight last night. Rina continues to struggle with dry air associated with an upper level trough and the associated increased wind shear; it has weakened to tropical storm strength today and continued weakening is expected in the next 48 hours. Rina is currently traveling in a northwesterly direction but is expected to take a gradual turn north later today. On this track, Rina is expected to move over the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later today and tomorrow. In the path of the storm are the popular tourist resorts of Cozumel, Cancun, Tulum and Playa del Carmen. After passing over these locations later today and tomorrow, Rina is forecast to exit the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow, October 28. Beyond that, considerable uncertainty exists with respect to Rina’s forecast track; the NHC now favors a path that will see the remnants of the storm moving back into the western Caribbean early next week. The storm is not expected to threaten energy installations in the Gulf of Mexico or affect southern Florida. While the system bears watching until it has completely dissipated, it appears at this point that any significant threat from Rina to Mexico has dissipated. The AIR tropical cyclone team continues to monitor Tropical Storm Rina and will provide additional information should conditions change.

Pre-Landfall 3 | Downloads
Posting Date: October 27, 2011, 8:15:00 AM